Philip Morris bet its future on heated tobacco to wean off the cigarette

Philip Morris International is the tobacco giant behind Marlboro and Parliament cigarettes.

With IQOS, PMI bet the global population of a billion smokers would not shrink any time soon — and that the industry, expected to grow to $1.1 trillion in five years, would be disrupted by alternatives to cigarettes. The mantra behind IQOS: 'If you don't smoke, don't start. If you can't quit, switch.'

Paul Riley, PMI's president for East Asia and Australia: 'We are putting ourselves in a position to move out of the mainstream cigarette business, and disrupting and transforming ourselves is a big challenge to take on... the switch to heated tobacco is just common sense and corresponds to what the consumer wants — a less harmful alternative.' By the company's account, heating tobacco at 350°C lowers the release of harmful chemicals such as benzene, arsenic and formaldehyde by 95% on average, versus a cigarette burning above 600°C.

A cigarette incumbent deliberately building its own substitute — the rare incumbent-led disruption case.

The harm-reduction framing is the strategy, and the 95% chemicals claim stays attributed as the company's own.

The mantra splits the market precisely: don't start, but if you can't quit, switch — keeping the smoker inside the franchise.

An incumbent can hedge disruption by selling the disruption itself — if it can credibly reframe the harm, not just the product.

As of October 2019, IQOS had launched in four Asia-Pacific markets and contributed 2.3% of PMI's market share; the source reports no later figures.