Waterlily bets AI predictions can get families to plan long-term care early

Waterlily is a San Francisco AI startup whose roughly three-minute intake questionnaire feeds machine-learning models built on more than 500M data points to forecast when a person will need long-term care, how it will progress, what it will cost and how to fund it; it sells to financial advisors, insurers and employers (SaaS from about $250 per advisor seat per month) and offers consumers a free prediction plus a $9.99/year plan.

That ML over 500M+ data points can predict long-term care needs and costs years early, and that advisors and insurers - not consumers - are the channel that pays.

$2.2M pre-seed; $7M seed led by Brewer Lane Ventures (announced January 2025)

Lily Vittayarukskul, a first-generation Cambodian-American aerospace engineering student, watched her family provide about two and a half years of daily care after her aunt's terminal colon cancer diagnosis; the experience "wiped us out financially," she told TechCrunch. She pivoted to genetic and data science and founded Waterlily solo in December 2021. Evan Ehrenberg, who had founded and sold clinical-trial platform Clara Health, tested the product, was struck by his own care prediction, and joined as co-founder and COO after about six months.

Waterlily launched its platform publicly in March 2024. By January 2025 it had eight major enterprise customers including Prudential and other Fortune 100 carriers, hundreds of independent advisors, MRR more than 22x its first month and 58% average monthly MRR growth, with data-sharing agreements including CMS and the Federal Long Term Care Insurance Program feeding its 500M+ data points. It raised a $2.2M pre-seed and a $7M seed announced January 28-29, 2025, led by Brewer Lane Ventures' John Kim with Genworth, Nationwide and Edward Jones participating. By July 2026 total funding reached $9.2M, and Vittayarukskul was profiled in a Business Insider as-told-to essay; the company site says she was named to Forbes 30 Under 30 2026 for Social Impact.

The gap is structural: health insurance and Medicare do not fully cover long-term care, yet most families only learn that when a crisis hits - Waterlily attacks the planning step before the crisis.

Data is the moat: 500M+ data points, with formal agreements including CMS and the Federal LTC program, allow personalized predictions where rivals fall back on national averages.

Advisors and insurers are paid to plan for aging, so the B2B2C channel made the product revenue-first instead of relying on consumer education.

The market was almost untouched by venture capital - "This space almost never receives funding," the CEO told Fierce Healthcare - giving a data-rich entrant an early, low-competition position.

Sell into the buyer whose job is the problem: consumers ignore long-term care until it is too late, but advisors and insurers are paid to plan for it - so Waterlily monetized professionals first.

As of September 4, 2026, Waterlily is a live, venture-backed startup with about $9.2M raised (Business Insider, July 2026) and no disclosed exit. Its site offers a free three-minute intake and a $9.99/year plan, cites HIPAA/SOC 2 compliance, and claims Forbes 30 Under 30 2026 and New York Times coverage for its founder. TechCrunch's January 2025 story remains the last public revenue detail: eight enterprise customers, hundreds of advisors, MRR over 22x the first month. The company planned to expand into disability, critical illness and Medicare planning.