What the business is
Paddle handles payments, tax and subscriptions for software companies as merchant of record.
The bet
That Apple will be forced to allow third-party in-app payments — and that developers will switch to Paddle's 5-10% fees the moment they can.
Starting capital
Not stated in the report.
How it started
In September 2021, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers ruled Apple could no longer prohibit developers from directing users to alternative payment mechanisms. Paddle announced its iOS IAP alternative on October 7, 2021.
What happened
Paddle set fees at 10% on transactions under $10 and 5% above, versus Apple's 30% (15% for subscriptions past year one), with availability planned from December 7, 2021, in line with the ruling. Experts doubted such a system could pass App Review; Epic appealed the ruling, leaving the legal ground open to reinterpretation.
What has to be true
Fees of 5-10% undercut Apple's 30%/15% — an arbitrage that only exists if the ruling holds up.
The product bundles developers' long-standing asks: lifecycle customer data, pause tools, PayPal, self-managed refunds.
Paddle's legal read of the Epic ruling says the system is permissible; Apple's interpretation remained an open question.
MacPaw's early commitment gave the bet its first named customer before the legal ground was settled.
What can be applied
Regulatory bets are a legitimate product strategy: build the alternative before the door opens, price it at a fraction of the incumbent's rate, and accept that your launch date belongs to a judge.
Aftermath
As of the announcement, Paddle planned availability from December 7, 2021; whether the appeal would change the ground rules was unresolved.
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