Philip Morris bet its future on heated tobacco to wean off the cigarette

Philip Morris International is the tobacco giant behind Marlboro and Parliament cigarettes.

A billion smokers won't quit — so sell them a 'better alternative': tobacco heated, not burned, positioned as the switch that keeps the smoker and drops the smoke.

With IQOS, PMI bet the global population of a billion smokers would not shrink any time soon — and that the industry, expected to grow to $1.1 trillion in five years, would be disrupted by alternatives to cigarettes. The mantra behind IQOS: 'If you don't smoke, don't start. If you can't quit, switch.'

Paul Riley, PMI's president for East Asia and Australia: 'We are putting ourselves in a position to move out of the mainstream cigarette business, and disrupting and transforming ourselves is a big challenge to take on... the switch to heated tobacco is just common sense and corresponds to what the consumer wants — a less harmful alternative.' By the company's account, heating tobacco at 350°C lowers the release of harmful chemicals such as benzene, arsenic and formaldehyde by 95% on average, versus a cigarette burning above 600°C.

A cigarette incumbent deliberately building its own substitute — the rare incumbent-led disruption case.

The harm-reduction framing is the strategy, and the 95% chemicals claim stays attributed as the company's own.

The mantra splits the market precisely: don't start, but if you can't quit, switch — keeping the smoker inside the franchise.

An incumbent can hedge disruption by selling the disruption itself — if it can credibly reframe the harm, not just the product.

As of October 2019, IQOS had launched in four Asia-Pacific markets and contributed 2.3% of PMI's market share; the source reports no later figures.