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Reddit约150亿美元IPO计划在2023年中遭遇富达41%估值下调
Reddit在2021年由富达领投的F轮融资中估值100亿美元，并在二级市场交易中触及150亿美元，随后其领投方因IPO不确定性加大将持股估值下调41%。
做的是什么生意
Reddit is one of the web's largest community discussion platforms — the "popular social media platform" that by mid-2021 drew 50 million daily visitors across 100,000 active subreddits and had just posted its first $100M+ quarter of advertising revenue.
起因
In 2021 Reddit was already on an IPO track: it had raised $250M earlier in the year, bringing total funding near $800M, and its role in the r/WallStreetBets-driven GameStop and AMC rollercoasters had doubled its valuation to $6B. Co-founder Steve Huffman told The New York Times the company had not planned to raise another round so quickly, but could not turn down what Fidelity was offering, and said the funding would factor into eventual IPO plans: "We are still planning on going public, but we don't have a firm timeline yet." The company had also hired its first-ever CFO, Drew Vollero, who had helped take Snap public.
经过
In August 2021 Fidelity led a Series F in which Reddit confirmed $410M raised, with plans to reach up to $700M, at a $10B valuation, earmarking the money for community, advertising and headcount. By late 2021 Reddit shares were changing hands at as much as $15B in secondary markets. Then the market turned: through 2022 and into 2023 Fidelity repeatedly cut its estimate of the stake's worth, part of a broader rout in which it also marked down Stripe and valued Twitter at about $15B. By April 28, 2023, Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund's Reddit stake stood at $16.6M — down 41.1% from the $28.2M it spent in August 2021.
结果
As of the June 2023 report Reddit was still private and operating, and declined to comment; TechCrunch said the markdown raised uncertainty about whether Reddit would maintain its reported intent to go public at a valuation around $15B. Reddit had raised over $1B to date, with Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz among its backers.
背景
Reddit是全球最大的社区讨论平台之一，2021年其业务终于跟上名声：单季度广告收入首次突破1亿美元（同比增长192%），日活用户达5000万，覆盖10万个活跃子版块，并借助r/WallStreetBets引发的GameStop和AMC狂潮进入主流视野。当年早些时候已融资2.5亿美元，总融资额接近8亿美元，估值翻倍至60亿美元。
2021年8月，富达领投F轮，Reddit确认融资4.1亿美元，计划最高融资7亿美元，估值100亿美元。联合创始人Steve Huffman表示，公司原本并未计划这么快再次融资，但无法拒绝富达的条件，这笔资金将计入未来的IPO计划。到2021年底，Reddit股票在二级市场的交易估值高达150亿美元，这强化了公司以该水平上市的意向。
随后市场不再配合。2022年及2023年初，富达多次下调其持股估值——这是更广泛重置的一部分，利率上升也影响了Stripe和Twitter——截至2023年4月28日，其2820万美元的Reddit头寸估值降至1660万美元，自2021年8月购买以来累计下跌41.1%。Reddit迄今已融资超过10亿美元，投资方包括红杉资本和Andreessen Horowitz。
TechCrunch在2023年6月的报道将此次估值下调视为对Reddit以约150亿美元上市意向的考验，并指出尽管更广泛的放缓，但许多大型初创公司的估值保持稳定，而富达的文件却持续下调估值。Reddit拒绝置评，且截至报道时仍为私营企业。
这件事要成立，得有什么
- 这轮融资是机会主义的：Huffman表示Reddit本未打算这么快再次融资，但无法拒绝富达的条件，因此100亿美元是卖方市场的数字，而非运营里程碑。
- 2021年末二级市场高达150亿美元的交易将融资估值变成了预期，将Reddit的上市意向锚定在市场已不再支持的峰值上。
- 此次减记并非Reddit特有：随着利率上升，富达也下调了Stripe和Twitter的估值，因此41%的降幅是繁荣估值遭遇2022-23年重置的结果，并非针对Reddit的裁决。
- 其后果是信誉差距，而非现金危机：Reddit融资超10亿美元，运营未受影响，但其约150亿美元的IPO意向已与其领投方的文件不符。
可借鉴之处
估值泡沫并非真金白银：100亿美元的融资和150亿美元的二级市场交易在IPO前可能被下调41%，因此要在条件有利时融资，但绝不要把估值当作既定事实。
后续进展
截至2023年6月1日，Reddit仍为私营企业，运营正常，对估值下调不予置评；迄今已融资超过10亿美元，投资方包括红杉资本和Andreessen Horowitz。TechCrunch认为41.1%的减记增加了Reddit以约150亿美元估值上市意向的不确定性，这是2021年峰值后成长型估值更广泛重置的一部分。材料未记录该日期之后的进展。
资料来源
- Fidelity has cut Reddit valuation by 41% since 2021 investment
- Reddit is raising up to $700M in Series F funding
- Fidelity has cut Reddit valuation by 41% since 2021 investment
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