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Snap上市融资34亿美元,开盘价比发行价17美元高41%

Snap以17美元发行无投票权股票,融资34亿美元,开盘报24美元,押注投资者愿意资助一家亏损的相机公司。

Snap Inc.

它在赌什么阅后即焚的消息会比永久信息流更受欢迎;这种习惯,加上以相机公司定位、创意广告和增强现实(AR),在盈利前数年就能支撑280亿美元的IPO。在扩

做的是什么生意

Snap Inc. (formerly Snapchat, Inc.) makes Snapchat, a camera-first messaging app whose photos and videos disappear; it monetized 158 million daily users with Snap Ads, Sponsored Lenses and Geofilters, plus Spectacles camera sunglasses and the Bitmoji app.

启动资金IPO raised $3.4B at $17 per share on 2017-03-02, after a Feb 17 filing that had planned about $2.3B at $14-16 (Fortune); Spiegel and Murphy each sold 16M shares for about $272M (CNBC) while Fortune reported the founders kept control through super-voting shares.

起因

By early 2017 Snapchat was about five years old (TechCrunch) and had become a generational habit: 158 million daily users at the end of 2016, up 48% from 103 million a year earlier, creating 2.5 billion Snaps a day, with 68 million US DAUs. Co-founders Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy ran the company, and its S-1 - quoted in full on the HN thread - described Snap Inc., formerly Snapchat, Inc., as a camera company whose app opens directly into the Camera, with Snap Ads, Sponsored Lenses and Geofilters as the ad products and Spectacles as hardware. The engagement thesis running through the thread: because a Snap disappears, the bar to create is as low as it gets, so users share constantly where permanent-feed apps get occasional posts.

经过

The public-market test was framed by warnings. Fortune reported 2016 revenue of $404M against $676M of negative cash flow, a super-voting structure that let the co-founders control major decisions while owning roughly 19%, and looming dilution: 105M RSUs granted in 2016 plus about 80M from earlier years vest at the IPO - one in six shares, worth about $2.9B to 1,859 employees at $16 - with roughly 270M new shares due within three to four years. The deal grew from a Feb 17 filing of about 153M shares at $14-16 to a $17 price and $3.4B raised on March 2. On the thread, bulls called Snap a call option on AR, citing geofilters, sponsored lenses and scarce Spectacles (official $130 units reselling above $200 on eBay); bears cited about a $500M net loss, thin ad-targeting data and the Instagram Stories and WhatsApp Stories clones, and noted the public shares carried no votes and no dividend.

结果

Shares opened at $24, about 41% above the $17 offer, and CNBC's same-day tally quoted them near $25 - an intraday market cap around $30B, with thread commenters citing $27.8B from the deal prospectus. Spiegel and Murphy each sold 16M shares for about $272M while keeping their controlling stakes; the thread's named next tests were the first earnings report on May 15 and the first lockup expiry on July 30, when employees could sell.

背景

Snap Inc.(更名前为Snapchat, Inc.)开发Snapchat,这款由Evan Spiegel和Bobby Murphy创立的相机优先阅后即焚消息应用。2016年底日活1.58亿(较1.03亿增长48%),每天产生25亿条快照。其S-1文件在HN帖中引述,将其描述为相机公司,应用直接打开相机,通过Snap广告、赞助镜头和地理滤镜变现,硬件为Spectacles。帖中论点:由于快照会消失,创作门槛极低,用户不断分享,而永久动态应用只是偶尔发帖。

财务背景对约280亿美元的估值来说很残酷:《财富》报道2016年营收4.04亿美元,负现金流6.76亿美元,净亏损约5亿美元;超级投票权股让联合创始人以约19%的持股控制重大决策。还指出稀释——2016年授予的1.05亿股RSU加上早前约8000万股,在IPO时行权,占六分之一,按16美元计算,1859名员工获约29亿美元,未来四年还有2.7亿新股。发行从2月17日计划约1.53亿股、价格14-16美元扩大到3月2日17美元、34亿美元;每位创始人出售1600万股,套现约2.72亿美元。

开盘报24美元,比发行价高41%,当日CNBC报25美元,盘中市值约300亿美元。HN帖中的立场分裂:多方称Snap为AR的看涨期权,引用地理滤镜、镜头和稀缺Spectacles(130美元官方价,eBay超200美元转售);空方视其为亏损公司,广告定向薄,受Instagram Stories和WhatsApp Stories克隆夹击,公开股无投票权、无股息。提到的考验包括5月15日财报和7月30日首个解禁日。

这件事要成立,得有什么

  • 阅后即焚降低了创作门槛:评论者称用户每天多次发布到Snapchat,而永久动态应用每周才更新,这是估值所依赖的习惯。
  • Snap在S-1中自称相机公司,并在相机内变现——Snap广告、赞助镜头、地理滤镜和Spectacles——而不是复制Facebook的订阅和社交图谱模式。
  • 创始人保留超级投票权控制,而公众股东无投票权、无股息,因此34亿美元融资是对Spiegel和Murphy的信任,而非股东权力。
  • 怀疑者的数字具体——净亏损约5亿美元、负现金流6.76亿美元、IPO六分之一稀释——因此股价大涨是对增长和AR将在GAAP盈利前实现的押注。

可借鉴之处

Snap出售了34亿美元的无投票权、无股息股票,并接受41%的涨幅,而不是稀释创始人的控制权——投资者在盈利多年前就已为增长和AR期权买单。

后续进展

截至2017年3月2日,Snap已完成IPO:17美元发行价融资34亿美元,开盘报24美元,首日接近25美元,盘中市值约300亿美元。Spiegel和Murphy各出售1600万股,套现约2.72亿美元,保留控制股。HN帖中提到的下一节点是2017年5月15日首次财报和2017年7月30日首次解禁;《财富》预计IPO行权RSU稀释将在未来三四年显现。

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